Yogisms

When I moved to US from India, I had no idea who Yogi Berra was. Soon, I started noticing that journalists sometimes insert his quotes in their stories on many diverse topics. In India, the term "Yogi" has some specific meanings. With that kind of name, and those uniquely styled quotes made me really curious about him. He seemed like some modern day Confucius!

Wikipedia didn't exist then. (Really!) So I found out about him the old fashioned way - by asking around. Turned out that he was one of the greatest Baseball players, Lawrence Berra, and a celebrated Yankees coach, and the name "Yogi" was given to him jokingly for his sitting style.

He stopped playing even before I was born. Although I enjoy Baseball, and watch the play-offs, specially when SF Giants are playing, I am not a fan enough to learn history, or dig up old videos to see him in action. But I did try to read up about his quotes. Were these intentional? Turns out, these brilliant quotes were just accidental.

I just decided to note my favorites, "Yogisms". Why and why today? Why not? :-)

The following are used so often, that we have stopped noticing the tautology and the paradox. I really find it amazing that we have actually adjusted our minds to use these appropriately.

It ain't over, till it's over.
It's Deja'vu all over again.
Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded.

Some can be very thought provoking. It's remarkable that someone can say these without actually meaning to be intellectual.

The future ain't what it used to be.
If the world were perfect, it wouldn't be.

Some are just funny, but still require a bit of attention to notice the humor.

I usually take a two hour nap from one to four.
Always go to other people's funerals, otherwise they won't go to yours.

The real Yogism's to me are the ones that make you go, "What? Come again ...".

When someone asked him what's the time, he replied, "You mean, now?"
It gets late early out here.
90% of the game is half mental.
While giving directions to his home, "When you come to a fork in the road, take it."
You can observe a lot by watching.
If the people don't want to come out to the ballpark, nobody's going to stop them.
Never answer an anonymous letter.
We made too many wrong mistakes.
A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore.

Naturally, the question is, how much of this is falsely attributed to him. I don't know. He has published a book called the "The Yogi Book" that explains the stories behind his quote. I haven't read it. May be I should. But he himself answered that question best, by saying,

I didn't really say everything I said.

They Really Said It ! [5]

"I didn't get it".

History will associate the legacy of Alan Greenspan with that lame excuse.

As the former Fed Chairman, he was definitely one of the chief persons responsible for causing the housing bubble. How much should he be blamed ? That depends on who you ask. He certainly cannot be responsible for the decisions made by others. But he should share a big portion of the blame. Not only did he promote the ultra-low interest policy for too long, but even in the role of a regulator, he failed miserably. His argument is, he did not turn a blind eye, and he just didn't get it.

Didn’t get it ? It's hard to accept that. The debate about whether or not there is a bubble wasn't exactly a secret. He participated in that debate, and defended his banking industry. Consider this speech ...

"Improvements in lending practices driven by information technology have enabled lenders to reach out to households with previously unrecognized borrowing capacities."

In other words, subprime was fine. And, there is no systemic risk system at all, because as he clarified in an another speech ...

The use of a growing array of derivatives and the related application of more-sophisticated approaches to measuring and managing risk are key factors underpinning the greater resilience of our largest financial institutions. ... Derivatives have permitted the unbundling of financial risks.

Derivatives reduced risks ? That and the so called "more-sophisticated approach" brought down the world economy like a house of cards.

Greenspan cannot hide under "I didn't get it", as he was arguing against "it", saying "it" won't happen. But "it" did, and not only wiped out many financial institutions, it wiped out jobs and livelihoods.

In addition, he also encouraged the practice of taking risky mortgages. Risky as in "adjustable rate mortgages" - which have a risk of interest rate changes, in addition to other risks. Now in fairness, hardly anyone was listening to his incomprehensible speeches to decide what mortgage product to use. But nevertheless, it was irresponsible of him to say ...

Indeed, recent research within the Federal Reserve suggests that many homeowners might have saved tens of thousands of dollars had they held adjustable-rate mortgages rather than fixed-rate mortgages during the past decade, though this would not have been the case, of course, had interest rates trended sharply upward.

There is a qualifier at the end, but he was saying this when the interest rates were historically low and indeed had the risk of moving upward. Read the entire speech for more gems, to decide if he should share any blame in promoting risky mortgages.

This is a rather sad end for a person of his intellect. He was a big follower and supporter of Ayn Rand's philosophy. Sometime, somewhere down the road, he shunned Objectivism. After warning investors about their "irrational exuberance", he changed the tune and claimed in this speech that

As events evolved, we recognized that, despite our suspicions, it was very difficult to definitively identify a bubble until after the fact--that is, when its bursting confirmed its existence.

Any student of financial history knows that to be simply untrue. Bubbles are NOT that hard to identify.

Nevertheless, I have to include some of his other quotes that I really agree with.

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value.

Protectionism will do little to create jobs and if foreigners retaliate, we will surely lose jobs.

Whatever you tax, you get less of.

Once upon a time, much before his constant deification on CNBC, Alan Greensapan was one very smart man.

They Really Said It ! [3]

One of the common refrains heard in the aftermath of the financial crisis was, "no one saw that coming". This is quite false, as their were a number of prominent thinkers who had been warning about the crisis.

But this is not the first time euphoria has given rise to a crisis. It has happened many times before and will continue to happen.

During the S&L crisis, the then FDIC chairman Bill Seidman oversaw the unraveling process. He was a frequent commentator on CNBC. He has left us - and more importantly to the regulators and lawmakers - this famous advice.

Instruct regulators to look for the newest fad in the industry and examine it with great care. The next mistake will be a new way to make a loan that will not be repaid.

When did he write this ? In 1993 !

Of course, such advice is meant to be ignored. And after every crisis there will be a legion of experts who will proclaim the impossibility of predicting the outcome.